Nuclear Countdown (The Good Kind)

Good news:

The U.S. and Russia agreed to a historic deal Wednesday to reduce the nuclear arsenals of the former Cold War rivals, the most significant pact in a generation and an important milestone in the decades-long quest to lower the risk of global nuclear war.

The New York Times reports on some of the details:

The new 10-year pact would replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 1991, or Start, which expired in December, and further extend cuts negotiated in 2002 by Mr. Bush in the Treaty of Moscow. Under the new pact, according to people briefed on it in Washington and Moscow, within seven years each side would have to cut its deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 from the 2,200 now allowed. Each side would cut the total number of launchers to 800 from 1,600 now permitted. The number of nuclear-armed missiles and heavy bombers would be capped at 700 each.

Neither the White House nor the Kremlin formally announced the agreement on Wednesday, pending the final telephone call between the presidents. A Kremlin official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there was an agreement on the text of the pact, although not all the wording had been given final approval. Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said, “We’re very close.”

On the one hand, a world in which the USA and Russia still have over 1500 active nuclear weapons each will still be a somewhat frightening place. On the other hand, a 25% reduction over 7 years is an impressive move in the right direction.

The reduction of its nuclear stockpiles will not hurt America militarily (for all practical purposes, 1550 nuclear warheads are just as deadly as 2200), but it will help it strategically. When America shows the world that it is fulfilling its reduction obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, it gains the credibility to lead the diplomatic effort against further proliferation in places like Iran.

Moreover, a world in which nuclear stockpiles are being reduced is one where non-nuclear states all over the world would be less inclined to develop nuclear weapons at all. When America and Russia reduce their stockpiles, China feels less threatened by both, and so doesn't expand its own arsenal. So neighbouring India doesn't feel threatened by China, and doesn't expand its arsenal either, which means that rival Pakistan doesn't have to worry as much, and so on.

In fact, if the two leading nuclear powers were to go far enough with their cuts, they could conceivably convince others to begin to reduce their own arsenals as well. But it's not clear that we'll get there anytime soon, and the arms reduction negotiations will certainly be a lot more complicated when all the nuclear powers are at the table together. "Global Zero" is still a distant and unlikely hope, but it's getting a little bit closer today.